(Omaha, Neb.)– The Mid-America Business Conditions Index survey of supply managers shows the April index rose to 52.5 from 49.6 in March. Creighton University Economics Professor Ernie Goss…
“It’s the third time in the past five months that the index has been above growth neutral and approximately 45 percent, on the other side, approximately 45 percent expect a recession in the second half of 2024.”
Goss says there is concern, though, when it comes to hiring…
“The picture was not good for the month of April. We’re seeing job losses out there in manufacturing. We really had a year now, a year, and this goes under-reported or un-reported perhaps, that the manufacturing sector has been in a recession.”
Goss says 32 percent of supply managers reported job losses for the month. He says Iowa and Minnesota were among the states in the region reporting job losses in April.
Goss adds that while the rate of inflation has decreased somewhat, that it remains a concern…
“We’re seeing disinflation, not deflation. Now the rate of growth is actually accelerating again. Our surveys are pointing to too much inflationary pressures in the supply chain.”
Goss says there’s a bit of a tug of war going on as far as the economic outlook is concerned…
“A lot of what I’ll call again fiscal dominance. The federal government is pushing things forward. At the same time the Federal Reserve is attempting to slow things down a bit. Things are slowing down but not what they should be slowing down.”
Goss adds he does not expect a Federal Reserve rate change any time soon.
