(Omaha, Neb.)– After falling below growth neutral for three straight months, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region including Iowa and Minnesota, has now expanded for two consecutive months. Creighton University Economics Profess Ernie Goss says the region’s overall index for March was at 50.8, barely above the growth neutral number of 50 and was down from 56.1 in February. Goss describes the region as being in what he calls a “rolling recession”…
“In other words recessions in construction, and in other areas like finance, construction, real estate, and also in certain states, states that specialize in say finance making and finance, states like New York where your apt to see more of a negative downturn. So in this part of the country based on a lot of agriculture, it was a pretty good reading, again above growth neutral. We asked about the outlook for the rest of the year, what were the big challenges. And out of ten, four out of ten said supply chain disruptions. No surprise there since these are supply managers so they’re concerned about that. Three out of ten said labor shortages which also wasn’t very surprising. Two out of ten said higher interest rates. I would expect that to be a bit higher. And one out of ten, only one out of ten said higher inflation.”
Hiring in the nine-state region in March slipped to 50, down from 52.8 in February.
The wholesale inflation gauge for the month declined to a still inflationary 77.1 from February’s 80.6.
